Cornwall sees unsustainable population rise in 2017

Latest data from the Office for National Statistics states that there was a net increase in population in the year ending June 2017 of over 7,000!

This is, we think the highest annual increase recorded.

And what does it mean?

More traffic, more congestion, more pollution.

As for talk of housing being built to meet local need, more housing is really to meet the demands of people from elsewhere, demand generated by developers, estate agents and the housing fraternity.

As for jobs any extra ones will be quickly taken by the new residents, little chance of improving the opportunities for the local population!

ONS, Internal migration by local authorities in England and Wales, year ending June 2017. Released 28th June.


Lots of houses in Calstock, but not for housing people!!

More than 30 homes, including 15 affordable dwellings, could be built in the Tamar Valley within a World Heritage Site.

Developer Construction Partners hopes to have its residential scheme at Bridge View Nurseries in Calstock approved once a Section 106 agreement has been finalised – conditions attached to planning permission approval.

The S106 deal would help secure the affordable housing for local people in perpetuity and see open spaces built as well education contributions to the local area.

In its submission, the parish council said it would like to see five of the open-market houses offered as self-build, and that 12 of the affordable ones should be socially rented in perpetuity while the other five affordable homes should be shared ownership. It added that priority should be given to applicants with a three-year connection with the parish.

In 2011, 6% of dwellings in Calstock parish had now usual residents!

There are currently 511 houses and apartments available as holiday lets.

Not really a shortage of housing is there? Just that the houses are not being used to house people!

Donald Trump calls for 300,000 houses to be built in England each year!

Aha you say, its fake news. Well you might think the idea that Donald Trump would say it is fake news.

But in fact the idea that we need to build 300,000 houses a year in England is fake news, its one of the biggest fake news stories our our time.

The only reason people think it’s actually factually correct is because the media, including self-styled ‘objective’ and ‘serious’ outlets such as the BBC, keep repeating it.

Politicians also repeat it and unsurprisingly the housing lobby (who make profits out of more housing), also repeat it.

Its based on some flawed analysis of household formation data and faulty population and household projections.

It just keeps on getting repeated.

Another example of irresponsible journalism.

In reality we build more houses each year than there are new households. We build the wrong type for the wrong reasons for the wrong people, but that’s another issue!

We are flying more and driving more – and wonder why the climate is getting dangerous?

How are we doing on the greenhouse gas emissions front?

Not that well really. After dipping in 2011 to 113,215 (thousand tonnes), road transport emissions have risen to reach 118,041 in 2016. This is from the latest UK Environmental Accounts report.

As for aviation emissions which are not included in the accounts (if they are let us know!), greenhouse gas emissions from UK-based international aviation rose from 31.6 MtCO2e in 2010 to 33.3 MtCO2e in 2015. Oops!

And in 1990 the figure was 15.4 MtCO2e. [Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, 2015 UK GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, FINAL FIGURES, 2017].

Doubled in 25 years! And there are plans for more air flights!!!

Its not doable is it?

Its getting hotter and dryer – but lets pretend all is well in the world!

Bernard Deacon @bernarddeacon

Global heatwave in a La Nina year? Don’t worry though. The UK has a ‘clean growth’ strategy. Or should that be a ‘complacency growth’ strategy?

Heatwave sees record high temperatures around world this week

From Europe to Africa, extreme and widespread heat raises climate concerns in hottest La Niña year to date on record

Record high temperatures have been set across much of the world this week as an unusually prolonged and broad heatwave intensifies concerns about climate change.

The past month has seen power shortages in California as record heat forced a surge of demand for air conditioners. Algeria has experienced the hottest temperature ever reliably registered in Africa. Britain, meanwhile, has experienced its third longest heatwave, melting the roof of a science building in Glasgow and exposing ancient hill forts in Wales.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said the rising temperatures were at odds with a global cyclical climate phenomena known as La Niña, which is usually associated with cooling.

Paolo Ruti of the WMO said it was difficult to ascribe any one weather event to climate change, but that recent high temperatures, intense rains and slow-moving fronts were in line with forecasts of how rising emissions will affect the climate.

“Recent analysis suggests that anthropogenic forcing might indeed affect the characteristics of summer blocking events in the Euro-Asia sector, in particular leading to longer blocking episodes,” he said.

Extreme weather events have buffeted much of the world over the past 12months, from the “Day Zero” drought in Cape Town to the abnormally powerful hurricanes Harvey and Irma that buffeted the east coast of the US and Caribbean.

Underscoring the link, a new report from scientists at the World Weather Attribution group indicates that manmade climate change and its effect on rainfall made the recent Cape Town drought three times more likely.

Yes lets create a diversion and blame the old for the housing problems facing the young!

Philip Inman in the ‘Guardian’ has fallen into the trap of blaming old people for the plight of young people. Referring to a report by the Intergenerational Commission he has a rant about the way in which old people have gained and in his view at the expense of the younger generation.

There are several glaring errors in his commentary. He fails to distinguish between income and wealth. You might have a house worth quite a lot especially if you live in an area with high house prices – but think of many pensioners in coastal and rural Cornwall- on paper wealthy but on low incomes.

He also fails abysmally to attribute blame where it lies.

Younger people have been disproportionately affected by:
Changes in welfare
Less secure jobs
An increase in poorly paid jobs

And no mention of the impact of second home ownership; the effect of holiday lets; buy-to-let.

The article is guilty of exploitation of the data to arrive at the wrong conclusion!

But there is so much more to say about the exploitation of the young – even more than was in the hundreds of pages in the commission’s report, which pulled its punches when it came to analysing who counts as rich and how far society needs to change to adapt to an ageing population. Their disposable income is beyond what many working families could ever achieve through higher wages or even promotions

It’s not just the top 1% who are rich. It’s not even the top 10%. About a third of the 12 million over-65s are wealthy. How can they be well off as pensioners? It’s because they have a generous occupational pension and property wealth beyond anything they might have considered when they bought their first home. They are millionaires. More than that, they are millionaires with very little to spend their money on.

This third of pensioners has none of the transport, clothing or food costs associated with full-time work. Their disposable income is beyond what many working families could ever achieve through higher wages or even promotions.

Their wealth is like a tax on the young. They hang on to property in the hope that it will rise in value and, when they die, be bought by someone younger with an astronomical mortgage, mitigated only partly by their own inheritance.

Concealed households – numbers up – but not what it seems!

It has been asserted that the number of concealed households has gone up implying a housing shortage.

Ian Mulheirn in his incisive and analytical way points out that although the number of houses where there are more than one household has risen, this does not result from a housing shortage.

Concealed households — what’s the real story?

Liam Halligan is always a man you’d want to have on your side in a debate. Unfortunately on housing he disagrees with me. But his rebuttal sidesteps the central case I’ve been making: that benign day-to-day housing costs and 25 years’ growth in the surplus stock of housing tell us that a lack of houses is not the reason why house prices have become unaffordable. He focuses instead on what increasingly seems to be the only piece of circumstantial evidence that housing shortage proponents have left to point to: the evidence of increasing numbers of ‘hidden’ households.

In practice it’s hard to see how housing supply can be the explanation when average housing costs are falling relative to average earnings almost everywhere, and stable in London.* What’s more, distributional changes like the erosion of social housing, weak wage growth for younger people, and more recently the benefits squeeze, seem like more probable causes of such a trend, and those things have a far more potent effect on affordability than changes in supply ever could.

So it seems that the concealed households argument for a shortage of houses — always somewhat tenuous because of its many possible causes — is actually an artefact of recent immigration. There is no evidence, on this simple analysis at least, to suggest that anything has changed for the UK-born population. We don’t know why these families share households and there are no doubt many different reasons. Nor do higher rates of sharing among migrants mean that everything is fine. But what this compositional explanation does imply is that housing supply isn’t the cause of the growth in concealed households.

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