The 2018 population projections – what do they tell us?

The basics
These are the most recent projections from ONS with the baseline of 2016.

The figures estimate that in 2030 the population of Cornwall will have risen to 605,900 up 50,800 from 555,100 in 2016 and up by 76,100 from 529,800 in 2011.

[76,100 at 2.2 per household would imply an additional 34,600 new houses].

The main reason for population increase is in-migration. Left to itself the resident population of Cornwall would fall as deaths are expected to exceed births. Current projections imply a fall of 14,300 people by 2030 leaving a population of 540,800.

In-migration from the UK and international accounts for all of the increase in population, totalling 65,000 from 2016 to 2030 or 4,600 per annum.

How do the projections compare to earlier ones?
Previous projections gave figures for 2030 of:
2006 based = 674,400
2008 based = 630,300
2010 based = 616,000
2012 based = 617,000
2014 based = 613,000
2016 based = 605,900

What we have is a fall in the projected figure over time. But oddly enough the housing target goes up!

Health warnings
Population projections are just that projections and in the past have been incorrect, over-estimating population growth in Cornwall.


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