The current target set out in the ‘Local Plan’ is for 52,800 dwellings but recent material implies that the number is likely to be bumped up to 60,000.
Lets get back to the basic question here – how many new houses does Cornwall actually need?
It’s fairly straightforward, using existing evidence to estimate what need would be over the plan period 2010 to 2030.
The figures are based on:
Existing population in 2011
Expected change in household size from 2011 to 2031
Changes in population due to natural change (births and deaths)
Population change due to in-migration
Cornwall’s resident population will slowly decline as deaths exceed births.
Household size is assumed to decrease over time
(A)Declining population – this assumes that there is no increase due to in-migration as numbers moving in equal the number of people leaving Cornwall.
Under this scenario there would be a need for -300 dwellings.
(B) Steady state population – this assumes a declining resident population but with some increase in net in-migration with the result that the population remains stable.
Under this scenario there would be a need for 4,800 dwellings
(C) Rising population – based on past trends regarding population increase due to in-migration, minus declining resident population.
Under this scenario there would be a need for 26,900 dwellings
# Additional dwellings to take account of the Home Choice Register have not been included due to the fact that the HCR does not measure the need for new dwellings but rather is indicative of a need for affordable and/or suitable housing.