New household projection methodolgy on the way?


Ian Mulheirn points out that change is on the way.

“It should be clear by now that the methodology used to forecast household formation is flawed, triggering wild overestimates of housing need for over 20 years.

Two changes to fix the crystal ball
But don’t just take my word for it. In light of this less-than-impressive history of household forecasting, the methodology is about to get a shake-up. The ONS has wisely proposed to ditch the ancient history, and simply use 2001–2011 trends in household size when it takes over responsibility for producing the official household projections later this year.

There’s also been another important change that should cause us to rethink the current DCLG household projections. Last October the ONS revised down its UK population projection substantially, with England’s population in 2031 expected to be over one million people smaller than previously anticipated.”

View story at Medium.com

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