With a stable population changes in household size over time will lead to extra households and therefore a need for extra accommodation. Our estimates are that changes in household size between 2010 and 2030 would lead to a need for 5,300 houses.
New households due to in-migration would lead to a demand for 36,800 extra houses.
Meeting exceptional need (due to homelessness etc), would create a need for 1,000 houses.
Thats 43,100 in all, of which 85% is not locally derived!
That leaves 9,400 houses above the need and demand level – presumably including to meet the ‘demand’ for second homes.
It means that of the 52,500 houses only 12% are to meet local need!
Using these figures shows that using the population projections (which tend to over-estimate growth), means that a target of 43,100 should have been the maximum figure not 52,500!
But if we had a stable population we would only need 6,600 new houses!
[Of course if we reduced the number of second homes, we could reduce the target even more!]