On Friday we gave an estimate of how many houses would be needed over the 2010 to 2030 period. Assuming that the 2010 population remained stable resulted in a total of 5,300 extra houses being required to accommodate changes in household size. This meant that 12.3% of extra households (including temporary homeless etc) would be accounted for by local population need.
However, actual as opposed to estimated natural change data shows that the local population is falling as deaths exceed births. Between 2010 and 2030, this could result in 7,000 fewer people.
Translated into households it means that the additional houses needed to meet household change (as household size falls) between 2010 and 2030 is:
This means that of the 52,500 houses planned:-
4.2% are to meet local need,
1.9% to deal with homelessness etc,
70% to meet in-migration,
23.8% for second homes and other unspecified demand!!