The impression given by planning documents is that new housing in Cornwall has to be built to ensure that our children and our children’s children will have somewhere to live. But is that correct?
Well the answer is no as we have made clear on previous occasions.
Population growth in Cornwall is derived entirely from in-migration. Without in-migration, deaths would equal births, creating a steady state population (something we ought to have as an objective anyway!).
So does that mean that all the 52500 planned new houses are to meet non-resident needs?
With a stable population changes in household size over time will lead to extra households and therefore a need for extra accommodation. Our estimates are that changes in household size between 2010 and 2030 would lead to a need for 5,300 houses.
New households due to in-migration would lead to a demand for 36,800 extra houses.
Meeting exceptional need (due to homelessness etc), would create a need for 1,000 houses.
Thats 43,100 in all, of which 85% is not locally derived!
That leaves 9,400 houses above the need and demand level – presumably including to meet the ‘demand’ for second homes.
It means that of the 52,500 houses only 12% are to meet local need!
Using these figures shows that using the population projections (which tend to over-estimate growth), means that a target of 43,100 should have been the maximum figure not 52,500!