It’s a conundrum isn’t it?
What do we think? Well some preliminary work results in rather interesting numbers and its more complex than probably everyone thought!
It looks as if for every 100 new houses (with 100 jobseekers) 70 jobs are required to service the new houses – retail, health and other mainly service jobs. That means that 70 of the jobseekers are catered for. These are NOT new jobs for the existing population!
That leaves 30 jobseekers and where do they go? That depends, with average economic growth the economy can probably produce enough jobs to cater for them. Lower growth could mean more economic inactivity or unemployment. Higher growth should mean that people in the workforce can get better jobs.
To conclude – jobs do not appear first out of nowhere and we certainly do not need to import more labour to fill new jobs. With a stable population we could concentrate on improving the quality of jobs instead of playing catchup.