Net migration 335,000 – creating demand for housing!

Net migration has stayed near record levels, standing at 335,000 in the year to June, the Office for National Statistics has said. There was also a record number of EU citizens coming to live in Britain with the figure standing at 284,000. Net migration – immigration minus emigration – was the second-highest number on record. The ONS says the net migration figure is similar to the previous year, although it was up slightly on the 12 months ending in March, when it stood at 326,000.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-38167225

Odd that supporters of unsustainable population growth never mention its impact on housing demand! Indeed, they do not question it as an issue but prefer to talk about supply and the (non-existent) planning restrictions. London has high levels of net in-migration and housing issues!

Perhaps employers who want to employee people from other countries should have to bear the housing cost which is presently borne by the rest of the community?

Heamoor – a beacon in the darkness!

Heamooor residents lead the way in protesting over plans for 700 unnecessary houses next to their village.Will other communities follow suit? And when? The clock is still ticking.

Cornish residents defy weather to protest against housing plan
TORRENTIAL rain proved no deterrent for more than 50 concerned residents who staged a protest in their village this morning against plans for hundreds of new…

http://www.cornwalllive.com/torrential-rain-did-not-deter-residents-public-protest-against-plans-for-hundreds-of-homes/story-29912981-detail/story.html

https://www.facebook.com/itsourcornwall/

Over 8.5% of Cornwall is built up!

Last week, John Pollard, the Leader of Cornwall Council commented on the adoption of the Local Plan. It was stated.

Pollard agreed there would be a lot of opposition to the plan : “We need to be clear that the Local Plan is not just about housing. Yes, we’ve agreed on 52,000 but there was a lobby from developers to make it over 90,000. The local plan will only add 0.25% to the local built environment – it’s not the kind of imposing number being portrayed by some”

“The Local Plan is about more than housing numbers, it’s about our ability to control housing numbers and our ability to plan where that building will take place. The Local Plan is a good thing – it means we can develop Cornwall how we want it to, not as imposed by other people”

Council: “services will be reduced” as Gov Cuts £Millions from Cornwall’s Budget; Approves Local Plan; Council Tax up by 4%

Leaving aside the suggestion that 52,000 is ok when 90,000 was mooted by some developers (the data does not support this view), and the simple fact that 52,000 has nothing to do with meeting housing need in Cornwall, lets look at the assertion that the local plan will only add 0.25% to the local built environment.

If we take the baseline as the 260,000 dwellings in the 2011 census, then 52,000 is an extra 20%.

We would therefore expect the built up area to expand by 20%. An extra 0.25 implies that the current built up area =1.25% of the land cover.

But the figures do not support this.

The only available data on land use is from the Generalised Land Use Database of 2005.

Looking at all the land which could be defined as ‘built up’ ie housing, other buildings, road, rail etc, we find that 5.4% of the land surface was built up in 2005. But that’s a lower limit. It excludes all the green spaces which lie within urban and other built up areas. A rough analysis suggests that if the ‘green’ spaces within towns are included, the total built up area equates to 8.5% of the land surface.

An increase of 20% would therefore imply an extra 1.7% would be added to the built environment. Thats rather a lot in 20 years!

Built up area to grow by 20%!

Last week, John Pollard, the Leader of Cornwall Council commented on the adoption of the Local Plan. It was stated.

Pollard agreed there would be a lot of opposition to the plan : “We need to be clear that the Local Plan is not just about housing. Yes, we’ve agreed on 52,000 but there was a lobby from developers to make it over 90,000. The local plan will only add 0.25% to the local built environment – it’s not the kind of imposing number being portrayed by some”

“The Local Plan is about more than housing numbers, it’s about our ability to control housing numbers and our ability to plan where that building will take place. The Local Plan is a good thing – it means we can develop Cornwall how we want it to, not as imposed by other people”

Council: “services will be reduced” as Gov Cuts £Millions from Cornwall’s Budget; Approves Local Plan; Council Tax up by 4%

Leaving aside the suggestion that 52,000 is ok when 90,000 was mooted by some developers (the data does not support this view), and the simple fact that 52,000 has nothing to do with meeting housing need in Cornwall, lets look at the assertion that the local plan will only add 0.25% to the local built environment.

If we take the baseline as the 260,000 dwellings in the 2011 census, then 52,000 is an extra 20%.

We would therefore expect the built up area to expand by 20%. An extra 0.25 implies that the current built up area =1.25% of the land cover.

But the figures do not support this.

The only available data on land use is from the Generalised Land Use Database of 2005.

Looking at all the land which could be defined as ‘built up’ ie housing, other buildings, road, rail etc, we find that 5.4% of the land surface was built up in 2005. But that’s a lower limit. It excludes all the green spaces which lie within urban and other built up areas. A rough analysis suggests that if the ‘green’ spaces within towns are included, the total built up area equates to 8.5% of the land surface.

An increase of 20% would therefore imply an extra 1.7% would be added to the built environment. Thats rather a lot in 20 years!

Expanding your labour supply is not good for you!

An item on the Guardian website looks at why UK productivity is low.


“But it is still the case that the UK sticks out against other countries that have at least had some growth,” she said.

Studies have looked at whether the near collapse of the banks restricted the supply of credit to companies and prevented them making productivity-enhancing investments. Riley said this would have had some impact.

The rapid expansion of mainly low-level service jobs that carry low levels of pay is another reason. In France and Germany, the coffee shop and online delivery culture is still in its infancy by comparison with the UK. These are businesses that provide a valued but unsophisticated service with limited room for productivity improvements.

It means the UK has lower unemployment and a bigger workforce, with fewer people economically inactive than France – but lower productivity and lower pay.

In France, and to a lesser extent Germany, restrictions on working hours are other factors at play. For instance, widespread industrial pay bargaining and limits on redundancies make hiring workers a more costly proposition than in the UK. This encourages French and German firms to invest in the latest machinery and limit employment.

Bill Martin, a former City economist who is now at Cambridge University’s Judge business school, has argued that the UK’s poor productivity is “more plausibly interpreted as a symptom of a largely demand-constrained, cheaper-labour economy”.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/nov/24/why-is-uks-productivity-still-behind-that-of-other-major-economies

A lesson here for Cornwall? Just expanding the labour supply (which boosts overall output but not per person) is not really a good idea.

Far better to improve the jobs available for the existing workforce, upgrade and upskill and make more productive (and more sustainable).

That needs investment – public and private – not in roads and airports but renewables, IT and sustainable activities.

Hayle – housing need or developer need?

From its our Cornwall.

Just what Hayle needs – another 1,000 houses. Hayle is fast becoming the Bodmin of west Cornwall.

Potential 1,000-home development plans to be revealed
After six years of discussion and debate the first phase of plans to build what could eventually be as many as 1,000 new homes in Hayle will be revealed…
cornwalllive.com

https://www.facebook.com/itsourcornwall/

Ok 1,0000 houses a population increase of 2,100. That is an increase of 22% on the 2011 population figure.

In 2011 about 4,000 dwellings in Hayle, an increase of 25%¬

Aha you say what about housing need? We don’t think housing need is the reason, it’s just that Hayle is an ideal site for developers to build houses to sell to people who want to live in a coastal area of Cornwall!

BMX track at Carn Brea? DON’T make it happen!

Cornwall BMX Racing Club are appealing for funds to construct a track at the foot of Carn Brea

We are based in the beautiful county of Cornwall in the south west of England and want you to come and experience all of our fantastic assets whilst also being able to ride a top class BMX Race facility – SUN, SAND, SURF and BMX RACING….what more could you ask for?

This new track will become a centre of excellence over time with exemplar National facilities to allow the continuous development of riders. The track will support riders by providing qualified coaches who are able to inspire and develop riders to meet their own goals and targets. Whilst the track’s key objective is to provide National BMX Racing within easy reach of the main conurbations of Camborne, Redruth, Pool and Truro, it will be developed and located to attract all levels of riders from wider-reaching areas.

The track will act as a hub of activity and capture your aspirations whether you want to simply fun free-ride with friends, become a Cornish Champion, compete at Regional level, take on the National BMX Race Series or represent Great Britain at World and international level.

PLEASE REMEMBER – Without support this project cannot happen – you are funding the final Planning Permission costs to top up £10,000+ we have already secured and there is a risk of not obtaining Planning Permission after spending these funds.

http://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/cornwall-national-bmx-track-project

Another example of a bad idea. The land is, contrary to reports not derelict. It would impact on the view from Carn Brea. It would have a negative impact on the local community and it would generate additional traffic!