Cornwalls population – it just keeps going up!

The latest mid-year estimates from the Office for National Statistics give a total population of 553,687 in 2016. This was up by 4,283 on the 2015 total of 549,404.

What was the cause of the population increase?
As expected deaths (6,094) continued to exceed births (5,377) a net loss of 717.

The increase was due to more people moving to Cornwall than leaving. 21,364 people moved in and 16,478 moved out, a net increase of 4,886. [International inflows and outflows were basically stable]

And why do people move to Cornwall?
There are a whole range of factors but the significant ones are – building more houses (which are then advertised to potential purchasers outside Cornwall); the portrayal of Cornwall as a rural, tranquil idyll to which people can escape; a tourist industry which gives people a (distorted) view of Cornwall; and the creation of jobs which encourage people to move to Cornwall rather than meeting local needs.

Cornwall Site Allocations Development Plan Document – Consultation

Cornwall Council are consulting on the Cornwall Site Allocations Development Plan Document (Allocations DPD) for a period of eight weeks. The consultation starts at 9am on Monday 12 June to closes at 5pm 7 August 2017.

The document has already undertaken a public consultation (Regulation 18) during October/November 2016. This pre-submission version (Regulation 19) of the Allocations DPD was endorsed by Cornwall Council’s Cabinet on 16 March 2017.
Consultation document

The Allocations DPD is available both as the whole document or by town chapters. If you only want to view the chapter for an individual town, please refer to the Area Pages section on this page.

Allocations DPD

Area Pages

Each town has it’s own web page containing the chapter from the main document and the relevant evidence documents.

Bodmin area
Camborne, Pool, Illogan and Redruth (CPIR) area
Eco-communities area
Falmouth and Penryn area
Hayle area
Helston area
Launceston area
Newquay area
Penzance and Newlyn area
Saltash area
St Austell area

Your comments

Please do not send us your comments until the formal Regulation 19 consultation period starts. Comments received before 12 June 2017 will not be formally considered.

The General election – will it make a difference?

With the Conservatives expected to win the election we can expect little change in policy, although the mishaps with the election campaign suggest new policies might emerge once the dust has settled.

The big problem is that all the parties have signed up to a pro-growth agenda, with the exception of the Greens to some extent. We can expect more focus on economic growth – whether it is good or bad; an underlying assumption that population growth is good and linked to both of these the assertion that building more houses is essential.

The problem of man-made climate change received minimal attention a rather worrying feature of the campaign as it is the biggest threat to society.

What is required is a radical set of alternative policies but that may be wishful thinking!

Immigration, households and housing demand – some thoughts!

Using the data in the ONS report which we outlined yesterday we can see that:

Between 2011 and 2015 the number of households headed by:
someone from the EU rose by 222,000
someone from outside the EU rose by 100,000
someone born in the UK rose by 100,000

This gives a total of 422,000 extra households with a potential demand for 422,000 houses (105,500 per annum), of which only 23% could be regarded as derived from UK household growth.

The average household size tends to be larger for households where the household reference person is from either the EU or non-EU countries (2.6 and 3.0 respectively, compared to 2.3 for households where the household reference person is UK born. This may be because these households consist of a number of people banding together to rent or own a property.

Because of this, demand for houses is lower than might be expected from the population numbers themselves.

However, if as other evidence suggests households consisting of immigrants change over time such that household size converges with the UK average this would increase the demand for housing.

Immigration into the UK does as we might suspect impact on housing demand although in a slightly different way from what we might imagine.

Immigration, households and housing demand.

Last week the Office for National Statistics released a report – International migration and the changing nature of housing in England – what does the available evidence show?.

The reports main findings are:

Housing demand is influenced by a number of complex factors, including population size, household structure, age of residents and the condition of the economy, as this affects employment, interest rates and other market incentives.

England’s resident population increased by 11% between 2001 and 2015, from 49.4 million to 54.8 million; the scale and nature of this growth has varied by region.

Alongside an increase in population, there has also been a 2% increase in the number of households between 2011 and 2015, to 21.9 million households in England.

Recent migrants to the UK are more likely to live in the private rented sector; 88% of EU born residents arriving between 2014 and 2016 privately rented, compared to 29% of those arriving between 1991 and 2000, although these trends are also influenced by age, as younger people are also more likely to privately

The pattern of change and growth has differed across the three main housing tenures, with the number of households in the private rented sector more than doubling between 2001 and the year ending March 2016, from 2.1 million to 4.5 million households; this is influenced by a number of factors.

The report states: One of the many factors likely to influence changes in housing demand in England is population growth. England’ s resident population increased by 11% between 2001 (49.4 million) and 2015 (54.8 million) 1. Population change varies between regions. The following interactive maps (Figure 1) show overall population change between mid-2011 and mid-2015 alongside each component of population change. These maps show that local authorities in London have experienced some of the largest increases in population between mid-2011 and mid-2015; this growth has been driven by both international migration and natural change, which have been slightly offset by negative net internal migration. Of the 10 local authorities with the largest increases in net international migration between mid-2011 and mid-2015, only two – Oxford (South East) and Coventry (West Midlands) – were outside London. In both cities, natural change also contributed to population growth, while net internal migration slightly offset population growth.

These data show how international migration has increased the population of England and is likely to have also increased the overall demand for housing. However, it should be stressed that this relationship is indirect, because population increases contribute to housing via household formation and household size. Migrants who live together, for example, in a house share, will create a lesser housing demand than those living separately.

There was a 2% increase in the number of households 3 in England between 2011 and 2015, to 21.9 million households4. In 16% (3.4 million) of these households, the household reference person (HRP) 5 was born outside of the UK (10% non-EU and 5% EU). The number of households where the HRP was EU born increased by 21% between 2011 and 2015 (from 978,000 to 1.2 million), whereas the number of households where the HRP was non-EU born increased by 6% over the same period (from 2.1 million to 2.2 million). For comparison, the number of households where the HRP was born in the UK increased by 1% between 2011 and 2015, from 18.3 million to 18.4 million. Household projections statistics for 2014 to 20396 show that the overall number of households in England is projected to increase from 22.7 million in 2014 to 28.0 million in 2039. Net migration (as assumed in the population projections) accounts for 37% of this projected household growth.

In terms of household size, it should be noted that international migrants tend to live in larger households. In 2015, the average household size in England where the HRP was born in the UK was 2.3 residents per household. The average household size where the HRP was born outside the EU was 3.0 residents per household, which is slightly higher than that for households where the HRP was EU born (2.6 residents).

Over time,the number of UK born residents who live in accommodation that they own has remained relatively unchanged since 2001 at just over 30 million, while the number of EU and non-EU born residents who own their own home has increased the number of residents privately renting has increased since 2001 for all country of birth groups in all time periods, UK born and non-EU born residents are more likely to live in accommodation that they
own rather than rent; however, compared to 2001, EU born residents are now much more likely to live in privately rented accommodation the number of UK born residents living in social housing has decreased slightly since 2001, while the number of residents born outside the UK living in social housing has increased for both EU and non-EU born

BBC Spotlight comments – fake news or pointless news?

Hot topic: Housing, BBC Spotlight

Housing is a hot topic again as it was revealed just over seven and a half thousand new private homes were built in the South West last year compared to just 170 new council houses.

The figures have come from the charity Shelter.

One issue for all the political parties in the election is that many people are paying high rents and can’t afford a deposit for a mortgage.

Claire Baker from Devon has been trying to save a deposit to buy for ten years but can’t.

“We can afford a mortgage but can’t get the mortgage… It makes me really angry,” she said.

This sort of ‘news’ is presumably an attempt by the local BBC to make a contribution to what they perceive to be of interest to the electorate.

The trouble is it’s factually incorrect – for the year 2016-17 the net additions to housing stock for SW England (and Cornwall) totalled 17,850*!
Secondly, it conflates affordability and housing supply. There are various reasons why people cannot afford housing, including the dismal situation for earnings growth.
And no awareness of the wider context – population growth; demand for second/holiday homes etc.

Presumably the person who came up with the ‘news’ has no understanding of housing issues!

[*DCLG, Table 122 Housing Supply; net additional dwellings,1 by local authority district, England: 2001-02 to 2015-16]