How much house building in Cornwall – Conservative style?

Although the Conservative manifesto does not give an actual number, using the available figures suggests a total of 250,000 per year.

Using our previous method of estimating what this might mean for Cornwall – 1.8% of total build – we get a figure of 4,500 or 90,000 over 20 years.

Thats 90,000 compared to the (unsustainable) 52,500 in the ‘Local’ Plan.

Lots more housebuilding which is fine for all those developers out there, some of whom support the Conservative Party.

Conservatives and housing – another party that does not understand housing economics!

The Conservative Manifesto says:

HOMES FOR ALL
We have not built enough homes in this country for generations, and buying or renting a home has become increasingly unaffordable. If we do not put this right, we will be unable to extend the promise of a decent home, let alone home ownership, to the millions who deserve it.

We will fix the dysfunctional housing market so that housing is more affordable and people have the security they need to plan for the future. The key to this is to build enough homes to meet demand. That will slow the rise in housing costs so more ordinary, working families can afford to buy a home and bring the cost of renting down. And it will ensure that more private capital is invested in more productive investment, helping the economy to grow faster and more securely in future years.

We will meet our 2015 commitment to deliver a million homes by the end of 2020 and we will deliver half a million more by the end of 2022. We will deliver the reforms proposed in our Housing White Paper to free up more land for new homes in the right places, speed up build-out by encouraging modern methods of construction and give councils powers to intervene where developers do not act on their planning permissions; and we will
diversify who builds homes in this country.

Once again, as with the other parties, there is no recognition of the need to reduce demand. The mantra is ‘we must meet demand’. The demand side of the equation has to be addressed. This means:

Restricting access to the housing market such that foreign and UK investors are excluded and reducing population growth, which in a UK context is largely a result of immigration.

Again the Conservative party seems not to realise (or just ignores) the fact that we have more houses than households!

As for the assertion that building more houses will ‘slow the rise in housing costs’ that does not accord with reality. Due to the factors mentioned above and many others such as interest rates and earnings, more houses does not equate with lower prices or even a reduction in the rate of increase.

Economic illiteracy it seems is quite common when it comes to housing economics!

110,000 houses in twenty years – Cornwall and Lib Dem housing policy!

Following the release of the Lib Dem manifesto, we did a quick calculation to see what the housing target would mean for Cornwall.

Using the Lib Dem target of 300,000 new houses a year across England, and assuming that Cornwall’s share is the same as the current share of new housing (about 1.8%), would result in 5,484 new houses each year in Cornwall or 110,000 over twenty years.

Thats over a doubling of the current unsustainable housing target of 52,500 houses!

Do the Lib Dems (or anyone else) think that is a good idea?

As most of the houses in the existing local plan will not go to meet local need, the additional houses would only go to boost the number of second homes/investment properties and the number of people moving to Cornwall for lifestyle purposes!

[We will also assess what the housing targets of other parties could mean for Cornwall]

Cornwall general election 2017 – Lib Dems plan for 110,000 houses in Cornwall

Following the release of the Lib Dem manifesto, we did a quick calculation to see what the housing target would mean for Cornwall.

Using the Lib Dem target of 300,000 new houses a year across England, and assuming that Cornwall’s share is the same as the current share of new housing (about 1.8%), would result in 5,484 new houses each year in Cornwall or 110,000 over twenty years.

Thats over a doubling of the current unsustainable housing target of 52,500 houses!

Do the Lib Dems (or anyone else) think that is a good idea?

As most of the houses in the existing local plan will not go to meet local need, the additional houses would only go to boost the number of second homes/investment properties and the number of people moving to Cornwall for lifestyle purposes!

Liberal Democrats would build 110,000 houses in Cornwall over 20 years!!!!

Following the release of the Lib Dem manifesto, we did a quick calculation to see what the housing target would mean for Cornwall.

Using the Lib Dem target of 300,000 new houses a year across England, and assuming that Cornwall’s share is the same as the current share of new housing (about 1.8%), would result in 5,484 new houses each year in Cornwall or 110,000 over twenty years.

Thats over a doubling of the current unsustainable housing target of 52,500 houses!

Do the Lib Dems (or anyone else) think that is a good idea?

As most of the houses in the existing local plan will not go to meet local need, the additional houses would only go to boost the number of second homes/investment properties and the number of people moving to Cornwall for lifestyle purposes!

The Liberal Democrats and housing – a recipe for disaster

The Liberal Democrats are the latest into the race with the release of their manifesto.

http://www.libdems.org.uk/manifesto

6.5 Building more and better homes
The housing crisis in Britain has become an emergency. For far too long Britain has built many fewer homes than we need; unless we build enough to meet demand, year after year, we will find that housing costs rise further out of reach. That is why we have set an ambitious target of increasing the rate of housebuilding to 300,000 a year – almost double the current level. These new houses must be sustainably planned to ensure that excessive pressure is not placed on existing infrastructure.

Rising house prices are not necessarily due to too few homes being built. Interest rates, the ability of households to purchase for investment or second/holiday homes all push up house prices.

We will:
●● Directly build homes to fill the gap left by the market, to reach our housebuilding target of 300,000 homes a year, through a government
commissioning programme to build homes for sale and rent. We will ensure that half a million affordable, energy-efficient homes are built by the end of the parliament.

Why 300,000? building more houses to fill the gap in the market but not restricting other users of housing will simply mean more houses NOT used for housing. After all the lower house prices are the cheaper they are for say someone wanting a holiday home!

●● Create at least 10 new garden cities in England, providing tens of thousands of high-quality, zero-carbon homes, with gardens and shared green space, jobs, schools and public transport.

No thought given to the need to grow food!

●● Set up a new government-backed British Housing and Infrastructure Development Bank with a remit including providing long-term capital for major
new settlements and helping attract finance for major housebuilding projects.

●● End the Voluntary Right to Buy pilots that sell off housing association homes and the associated high value asset levy.

●● Lift the borrowing cap on local authorities and increase the borrowing capacity of housing associations so that they can build council and social housing.

●● Scrap exemptions on smaller housing development schemes from their obligation to provide affordable homes, and strengthen the hand of local
government to prevent large developers reneging on their commitments.

The affordable homes obligation is a flawed system but all this would do would be to encourage developers to split developments to get below the threshold.

●● Require local plans to take into account at least 15 years of future housing need – focusing on long-term development and community needs.

15 years! Whose needs – those of the local community or those wishing to move to the area from other parts of the UK. Housing needs or developers demands?

●● Create a community right of appeal in cases where planning decisions go against the approved local plan.

●● Enable local authorities to:
— Levy up to 200% council tax on second homes and ‘buy to leave empty’
investments from overseas.
— Enforce housebuilding on unwanted public sector land.
— Penalise excessive land-banking when builders with planning permission
have failed to build after three years.
— End the Right to Buy if they choose.

Again no mention of demand due to population increase largely a result of immigration. No acknowledgment of the fact that we have more houses than households!

Labour and housing – good in parts but misses the vital issues

The Labour party manifesto includes housing policy. There are some good points – particularly about the rights of private renters and building more affordable homes.

SECURE HOMES FOR ALL
Home is at the heart of all of our lives. It’s the foundation on which we raise our families, the bedrock for our dreams and aspirations. But for too many people, the housing pressures they face are getting worse not better. Britain has a housing crisis – a crisis of supply and a crisis of affordability.

It doesn’t have to be like this. Labour will invest to build over a million new homes. By the end of the next Parliament we will be building at least 100,000 council and housing association homes a year for genuinely affordable rent or sale.

HOME OWNERSHIP
The number of home-owning households has fallen by 900,000 for the under-45s since 2010. Labour will back first-time buyers to buy that special first home. The number of affordable homes to buy has plummeted by two-thirds under the Conservatives, so we will build thousands more low-cost homes reserved for first-time buyers.

PRIVATE RENTERS
We will end insecurity for private renters by introducing controls on rent rises, more secure tenancies, landlord licensing and new consumer rights for renters. Soaring rents are a real problem Ȃ leading to more families living in temporary accommodation, more people sleeping rough, and many not having enough money to save up for a deposit or for a rainy day.

COUNCIL AND SOCIAL TENANTS
Under the Conservatives, affordable housebuilding has fallen to a 24-year low. Labour will build the genuinely affordable homes to rent and buy that the country needs. We will remove government restrictions that stop councils building homes and begin the biggest council building programme for at least 30 years. :e will ditch the Conservatives’ ban on long-term council tenancies to give council tenants security in their homes.

But there are some glaring omissions
1) No reference to the impact of population growth (largely due to immigration) on creating excessive demand;
2) Nothing about the impact of UK and foreign buyers purchasing homes for investment purposes;
3) Nothing about restricting second homes.

Political parties will not solve housing issues – largely of affordability rather than supply – without dealing with the demand side.

And no recognition that we actually have more houses than households!

For more on this issue see: https://medium.com/@ian.mulheirn/part-1-is-there-really-a-housing-shortage-89fdc6bac4d2